John Robb is talking about Pakistan. I feel vindicated.

 

We're into uncharted territory now.

 

With oil over $85/bbl, the American housing market in chaos and banks going belly-up all over the world, we're in a very dangerous position. The truth is, there are no good options. 5 years ago, people (and I'm talking about people with actual credentials here, not your average slob on the street) were laughing at the concept of $100 oil.

 

Nobody is laughing any more.

 

And the housing market is just one of the symptoms. I went to the grocery store today, and there was a sign posted prominently on the front door that read in effect "We're experiencing shortages with certain brands. We don't know why, but it will all be better soon." Right. Anyone who can't read the subtext here is going to have a very difficult winter this year. I hope they have a good recipe for soylent green, because that's all that will be on the menu very soon. And I'm not talking about dirty ass-end of the world places like Sudan, either. They've been eating dirt for nearly 2 years now. I'm talking about right here in major cities in first world nations. Food shortages, right here, right now.

 

Oh sure, it doesn't look like the pictures you see on those "save the children" commercials yet. Right now, it's mostly reduced selection. Less popular brands quietly disappearing from the shelves. Things like 1% milk. But it will expand. Do you suppose it's a coincidence that countries all over the world are culling populations of beef and poultry? I'll give this one to my readers for free: It's not because of some disease, despite what Miniplenty may be quacking about on the telescreens. It's feed shortages.

To understand why Mexico is a failed state, it is instructive to consider the mechanism of a state as a life form. The classical definition of a life form must generally meet the following citeria:

 

1. Homeostasis

 

A life form must have some method of controlling internal processes to qualify as a life form. If the body becomes overheated, it starts to sweat. If the body needs fuel, it seeks food. If the body recieves an insult, platelets form to clot the wound, etc. So how does this apply to the state? Well, if garbage started piling up in the streets, we wouldn't be able to conduct business. So one of the levels of government (usually municipal) responds by expanding it's waste disposal department to respond to the needs of the community. If civil unrest threatens the stability of the state, the police move to quell it. If the economy fails to grow, the state's central bank lowers it's interest rates. There are many examples.

 

2. Organization

 

In the case of the state, the "cells" are employees. All of the cells are part of the organism. Though none have full control of all aspects of the organism, they all contribute to it's existence and wellbeing.

 

3. Metabolism

 

To qualify as a life form, the state must consume energy. This is important, we'll come back to it.

 

4. Growth

 

When is the last time you saw a state shrink? A state's tendancy is to expand like a gas, filling all the area by which it is surrounded. The only way an existing state shrinks is if it is forced to by a another state encroaching upon it's territory. And that should not be considered to be negative growth, but rather as cannibalization by the invading state.

 

5. Adaptation

 

States are quite adaptable, though some are faster than others. Sometimes, a state will completely transform itself in order to continue it's existence. At this point, it is important to make the distinction between nation, state and government. Canadians are a nation, Canada is a state, and parliment is the government. Using this guideline, it is easy to see how a state can survive, simply by changing it's government. But that is an extreme example. Lesser examples might include raising an army to defend itself from invaders, or the raising of taxes.

 

6. Response to stimuli

 

This is generally expressed as physical movement, though in the case of a state, it need not be so. There are several examples of response to stimuli, such as the aforementioned raising of armies. Otheres might include seeking of new trade partners when old partnerships are no longer profitable, or the closing of airports to prevent the spread of disease.

 

7. Reproduction

 

This final criterion is generally considered insufficient to describe all life forms, as there are several examples of what are obvious life forms which lack reproductive capability. Sterile castes (ants) and hybrids (mules) are the two most often cited examples. That being the case, it is still possible to consider levels of government to be offspring of the parent state.

 

But what does all this have to do with Mexico?

 

Remember #3? A state must consume energy in order to survive. More specifically, it must consume money. Money is a paper representation of energy, in that it can be used to purchase goods and services. If I buy a loaf of bread from you for a dollar, I am trading the energy I expended to earn that dollar for the energy you expended to make the bread. Well, most of Mexico's money comes from oil pulled out of Cantarell.

 

Now, Cantarell is an interesting story. It begins 65 million years ago, at the cretaceous tertiary impact event. You see, when a 10km wide asteroid created the Chicxulub crater, the blast wave pushed everything out of the region. Then when the water came rushing back in to fill the void, it carried all kinds of debris (read: dead animals) with it. Over time, those carcasses became the oil that feeds Mexico's budget.

 

You see, Cantarell has an unique structure, roughly akin to a big bowl with oil at the bottom. Go find a bowl, fill it with water, and stick a straw into it. Now, suck out all of the water. See what happens when you get to the bottom? The water flow doesn't taper off gradually; it flows at a constant rate, then just stops. This is what's happening with Cantarell right now. Within 10 years, Mexico will go from being a net oil exporter to a net oil importer. It will no longer be able to "eat" the oil revenues, and it will either find a new food (money) source, or it will die.