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August 24 This must be some sort of recordThat's right, sports fans. I'm posting twice in less than 12 hours.
First, I would like to hop into my way-back machine (You know how I love to do that, right?) and set the controls to March 14, 2008 when I said:
"What's next?
My guess, is that the US treasury is soon going to have a firesale. They are going to dump the last of their gold reserves on the open market "as a profit-taking measure". Of course, anyone who understands how fiat economies work will see this for what it really is - a last-ditch effort to pay off some of their debts before the economy collapses.
But I digress. What this selloff will do is temporarily suppress gold prices. How far depends on exactly how much gold is still sitting in the vaults. (My guess is "far less than we think"). We might see prices temporarily fall as low as $650/oz, some time in Q2. However, (and I can't stress this enough) the correction will be temporary. The real players out there, the ones who already own 80% of the gold in the world, will step into the feeding frenzy created by the correction and scoop up every last ounce (paid for in $USD, of course)."
Well as it turns out, my way-back machine really is the most impressive tool in my kit, because I was right again. Here's a highlight, dated August 22 (yesterday):
"These facts speak for themselves. Here are the facts. As of July 1, 2008, two U.S. banks were short 6,199 contracts of COMEX silver (30,995,000 ounces). As of August 5, 2008, two U.S. banks were short 33,805 contracts of COMEX silver (169,025,000 ounces), an increase of more than five-fold. This is the largest such position by U.S. banks I can find in the data, ever. Between July 14 and August 15th, the price of COMEX silver declined from a peak high of $19.55 (basis September) to a low of $12.22 for a decline of 38%.
For gold, 3 U.S. banks held a short position of 7,787 contracts (778,700 ounces) in July, and 3 U.S. banks held a short position of 86,398 contracts (8,639,800 ounces) in August, an eleven-fold increase and coinciding with a gold price decline of more than $150 per ounce. As was the case with silver, this is the largest short position ever by US banks in the data listed on the CFTC’s site. This was put on as one massive position just before the market collapsed in price. Is there a connection between 3 U.S. banks selling an additional 78,611 gold futures contracts (7,861,100 ounces) in a month, followed shortly by a severe price decline in gold? That’s equal to 10% of annual world production and amounts to more than $7 billion worth of gold futures being sold by 3 U.S. banks in a month. How can this extraordinary concentrated trading size not be manipulative?" Now, I'm the first to admit that my dates and maybe my specific dollar figures might have been a little bit off, but we seem to have followed the script rather nicely. Oh, and for any of my readers who might have been waiting for their buy signal, THIS IS IT. If you want to salvage anything from your meagre savings before the $USD collapses, do so now. Seriously, this is it. August 23 A Sign of the Times?It's been an exciting Olmpics this year, has it not?
As if the Chinese's blatant use of underage gymnists and accusations of bribery weren't bad enough, now we have athletes assualting referees. I don't know which disturbs me more; the disgraceful behaviour, or the blatant anger oozing from even the athletes. Isn't the world ugly enough? I don't even like the olympics, and I'm ashamed.
August 12 Weapons of Mass DistractionI can't imagine why, but the Georgian government has seen fit to recall it's 2,000 troops from Iraq. I guess they had more pressing matters to attend to than managing those checkpoints in Kut.
You see, those troops were assigned to guard the smuggling routes that the Iranians like to use to move weapons and supplies into Iraq (and a damn fine job they have been doing, too. Can you detect the sarcasm?). It sure would be a shame if the Iranians took advantage of this security flaw at a time when the entire world is looking at Georgia...
I guess it's a good thing the US has assembled one of the largest naval armadae in history and sent them to the Persian Gulf:
I guess civilization was nice while it lasted... August 10 Forget the Olympics!Let the REAL games begin! (Click for larger view)
You know, some of the more...conspiratorial-minded among us might seriously question the timing of this particular campaign. It's interesting how US-backed Georgian forces chose the first day of the Olympics to invade South Ossetia (highlighted in red). It's also interesting how the media is neglecting to mention the fact that Georgia started it. It's also interesting that no less than 4 US carrier groups are heading to the Persian Gulf and another 2 battle groups to the Mediterranean at flank speed. It's also interesting how this is happening within 25km of the Baku Tbilisi Ceyhan oil pipeline (BTC), the second longest oil pipeline in the world, which moves approximately 1 million barrels of product from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean.
But remember: Oil has nothing to do with it. August 09 The Play is the Thing!OK, I guess everyone is getting a little tired of watching reruns on CNN. It's always "Is Obama black enough?" or "Is Obama white enough?" or whatever it is this week. I can't keep track. So let's change the channel:
For those of you who have already had your attention spans destroyed by network television, I'll give you the ADHD version:
1. USA good, terrahists bad.
2. Pakistan helps USA, therefore Pakistan good.
3. Pakistan also helps terrahists. Pakistan bad?
Let's hop into the way back machine, and revisit my blog entry from December 28, 2007. I warned that crossing the border into Pakistan would be...bad. And sure enough, that's exactly what the US military now wants to do. I can't say I blame them. For them, it's like Laos all over again. These fighters cross into Afghanistan, pick off a couple of soldiers, maybe blow something up, then vanish like farts in the wind back across the border into Pakistan. That little line on the map is not only a serious strategic roadblock, but it must be incredibly frustrating for the soldiers on the ground. But here's the problem.
If the US or coalition forces start openly* crossing the border, it will further alienate the Pakistani people, especially in the tribal region along the border. We have to bear in mind the mechanics of a guerilla war: Some of the guerilla collaborators are willing participants, but some are being coerced. I can well imagine that some of the tribal villages in which the Taliban are finding refuge are in fact being held hostage and would very much like to get out from under them. Unfortunately, the US military doesn't discriminate when it comes to collaborators. It won't take much hut-burning and civilian-killing to convince these "undecided" tribal people to decide that maybe the Taliban isn't so bad afterall.
But there's a better reason not to cross that border. Al Qeada wants us to cross that border. I wonder what Sun Tzu would have to say about this situation?
"Therefore, the principles of warfare are:
Do not attack an enemy that has the high ground;
do not attack an enemy that has his back to a hill;
do not pursue feigned retreats;
do not attack elite troops;
do not swallow the enemy's bait;
do not thwart an enemy retreating home.
If you surround the enemy, leave an outlet;
do not press an enemy that is cornered.
These are the principles of warfare." Sun Tzu - The Art of War, Ch.7 Coalition forces crossing into Pakistan would be like Christmas to them. Well, not Christmas. More like Ramadan, but with less praying and more celebrating. Do we really need any other reason to not cross the border than to deny the enemy's strategy? *I say openly because they have been crossing the border coverly for several years. One would be a fool to assume otherwise. They did it in Laos. Hell, they are doing it in Iran as we speak. Which of course begs the question: Why don't those covert ops teams just follow the extension cords running up into the hills and drop some HE on the cave with the satellite dish on the roof?" |
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