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    September 24

    Dare to D.R.E.A.M.

    People thought I was crazy last year when I said "I give it 18 months before someone floats a bill that gives illegal immigrants citizenship in exchange for military service."
     
    Well it appears that the D.R.E.A.M. (That's the Development Relief and Education for Alien Minors Act) may soon become a reality.
     
    Before we delve too deeply into this brilliant idea, I just want to point out what a weak, childish and transparent anagram this really is. Can you imagine just how many hours the authors spent trying to come up with a pompus and obfuscating name to match the preformed marketing name?
     
    But I digress.
     
    Some of you might be wondering "Well what's so bad about the bill? Using illegal aliens as cannon fodder kills 2 birds (or rather, brown people) with 1 stone, doesn't it?" Well here's what Machiavelli had to say about foriegn mercenaries:
     
    "Mercenaries and auxiliaries are useless and dangerous; and if one holds his state based on these arms, he will stand neither firm nor safe; for they are disunited, ambitious and without discipline, unfaithful, valiant before friends, cowardly before enemies; they have neither the fear of God nor fidelity to men, and destruction is deferred only so long as the attack is; for in peace one is robbed by them, and in war by the enemy. The fact is, they have no other attraction or reason for keeping the field than a trifle of stipend, which is not sufficient to make them willing to die for you. They are ready enough to be your soldiers whilst you do not make war, but if war comes they take themselves off or run from the foe; which I should have little trouble to prove, for the ruin of Italy has been caused by nothing else than by resting all her hopes for many years on mercenaries, and although they formerly made some display and appeared valiant amongst themselves, yet when the foreigners came they showed what they were."
     
    He then goes on at lengh to describe the various examples of mercenary forces throughout history turning on thier employer states, or simply fleeing from the field. History is rife with them. To sum up: foriegn mercenaries are loyal only to themselves.
     
    This situation has "catastrophy" written all over it. Here's an entirely plausible scenario:
     
    Let's say there's one of these DREAM soldiers stationed at a green zone checkpoint. We'll call him 'Pablo'. Pablo is a good guy. He buys into the whole "giving back to my new country in advance before they have even done what they said they would" thing. Now Pablo comes from a family of 12. One of his brothers back in Mexico, we'll call him 'Pedro', gets into trouble with one of the narco gangs who are currently in a de facto state of war with the Mexican government. Now, narco gangs are international organizations with some...strange bedfellows. Suddenly, our narco gang in Mexico is kidnapping Pedro for one of thier druglord partners in Afghanistan, who are doing favours for thier 'terrorist' buddies, who are trying desperately to get one of thier operatives in Iraq past Pablo's checkpoint with a SYMTEX vest. Pablo (who just doesn't want his mother recieving Pedro-bits in the mail) takes an unscheduled leak around the corner and suddenly you have a green zone full of diced diplomat and contractor concarne.
     
    And that's the good scenario.
     
    The worst part about this whole ugly story, is just how inevitable it all is. Imagine what it must be like in Mexico right now. Food riots, narco gangs with bigger budgets than the government, thousands of police killed in the last couple of years, constant systems disruption...What the hell else are the people going to do? If I.C.E. announced they were opening the borders, but would shoot every 50th person crossing, they would run out of bullets. The situation in Mexico is that bad.
     
    As for my next predictions? Well, the field is rife with possibilities. But I'll try a few:
     
    1. Collapse of the US dollar.
     
    This one's a no-brainer. The trend has been underway for a few years now, but things have really picked up steam in the last few months. Last week, the FED had a choice: bankrupt the major investment houses, or starve the people out of thier homes. Guess which one they chose? Not only did they lower interest rates, garenteeing continued inflation, but they changed the lending rules. The major banks are borrowing money at a rate of over $2 billion per day. Dollar reserves are like a big game of hot potato. Nobody wants to be the one holding US treasuries when the music stops.
     
    2. Iran.
     
    We all know it's coming, but I don't think anyone believes it will really happen. I assure you, it will. You see, when American forces are forced to evacuate from the roof of thier embassy...again... there is going to be a HUGE power vaccuum in the middle east. And if there's one thing the Israelis and Saudis can both agree on, it's that they don't want to see that vaccuum filled by Iran. I can't say I blame them, either.
     
    3. Revolution in Pakistan.
     
    Anyone who's spent the last couple of years worrying about a nuclear Iran has fallen victim to propaganda and been blinded by the very real threat in Pakistan. At last count, there have been *at least* 4 seperate attempts on Musharraf's life. And now everybody's favorite boogyman Osama has started turning up the heat. The only thing holding that place together at the moment is the peoples' fear of the ISI exceeding thier fear of (choose one: Al Quada, drug lords, starvation, tribal elders, Sharif loyalist paramilitaries), and even that is starting to wear away. And unlike Iran, Pakistan has nuclear weapons and long-range delivery systems.
     
    Sleep well, kiddies.